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Logan Mohtashami on jobs data and the bond market

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Zillow: New listings for expensive homes plunge 46% year over year

The housing market will be a rollercoaster ride the rest of the year

As COVID-19 continues to create a ripple effect in the housing market, new listings are down 39% year over year overall, according to Zillow.

Specifically, new listings of higher-end homes are down 46%, while the least expensive homes are down only 32%.

In response to the pandemic, new listings in the most-expensive homes were the first to tumble below 2019 levels, while cheaper listings fell over a week later.

Across the U.S., new listings in the priciest 20% of homes were down 46%, compared to a year ago, and up slightly from the 51% year-over-year decline recorded in mid-April. Zillow said that this is so far the most depressed segment.

During a normal home-buying season, about 28% of new for-sale listings were priced within the top 20% of the home value distribution in a given metro. As of the week ending May 3, these homes made up 25% of new homes coming onto the market.

Although luxury listings fell the quickest, those among the bottom 20% of home values still fell considerably. These homes currently account for slightly more than 17% of all new listings which is up from 15% at this time in a normal year.

Zillow said that the number of new listings within the top tier of home values plunged further than new listings in the market as a whole, and has fallen the most in 37 of the largest 50 metropolitan areas.

According to realtor.com, the company expects that home sales in the U.S. will rebound in the late summer and early fall as fears of the coronavirus begin to cool down, before experiencing a downturn again later in the year.

The real estate site released a new housing forecast Wednesday, which predicts that despite an uptick in transactions during the third quarter, largely from Millennials, home sales will be down 15% year over year.

The forecast said home prices will flatten nationally as demand shifts to secondary markets, where prospective buyers find more affordability and space.

All things considering, U.S. home prices aren’t expected to drop more than 2-3% through the end of the year, according to a forecast released by Zillow.

According to Zillow, the third quarter this year will show a 0.13% decline year over year, followed by a 1.18% decline in Q4 and 1.66% decline in Q1 2021. Once Q2 2021 rolls around, there will be an estimated 0.21% increase.

The forecast continues to predict that the number of homes sold this spring will fall as much as 60%.

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