Per National Mortgage News this morning:

The default rate on subprime mortgage loans hit 12.4% in May, up 41 basis points from the rate recorded in April, and the foreclosure rate climbed to 5%, according to a Friedman Billings Ramsey report. FBR managing director Michael Youngblood said he expects the subprime default rate to continue to drift upward to 14.45% by April 2008. The default rate on subprime loans stood at 5.7% in May 2006 and the foreclosure rate was 2.73%. The report by the Alexandria, Va.-based investment banking firm also shows that the default rate on alternative-A loans rose to 2.69% in May, up 21 bps from that of the previous month. (The default rate includes loans 90 days or more past due, in foreclosure, and real estate owned.)

For the record, that appears to mean that FBR analysts don’t expect to see housing recovery until at least the back half of 2008.