ADP: Construction industry leads March employment surge

Jobs forecasted to increase 241,000

As job gains continue in the construction industry, employment is expected to surge in March, according to the ADP and Moody's Analytics National Employment Report.

The report shows jobs will increase by 241,000 in March. This is up from ADP’s prediction in February for 235,000 jobs, but down from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ reported increase of 313,000.

“The rebound in employment growth over the past few months is principally due to the goods sector, with the ADP showing gains of 31,000 in construction and 29,000 in manufacturing last month,” Capital Economics Chief Economist Paul Ashworth said, commenting that he predicts jobs will increase by 250,000 in March.

But because ADP often revises its numbers significantly, its reported job growth should be taken as a general direction of the market, but not a specific forecast of the number of jobs added on any given month.

The chart below shows how March’s report compares to previous reports from ADP. So far this year the company has reported strong employment growth which surpasses to 200,000 marks.

Click to Enlarge

ADP jobs

(Source: ADP)

“The job market is rip-roaring,” Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi said. “Monthly job growth remains firmly over 200,000, double the pace of labor force growth. The tight labor market continues to tighten.”

The goods-producing sector is set to increase by 65,000 jobs overall, with changes in the following areas:

Natural resources and mining: Increase 5,000

Construction: Increase 31,000

Manufacturing: Increase 29,000

The service-providing sector is set to increase by about 176,000 jobs, with changes in these areas:

Trade, transportation and utilities: Increase 40,000

Information: Increase 3,000

Financial activities: Increase 18,000

Professional and business: Increase 44,000

Education and health: Increase 28,000

Leisure and hospitality: Increase 26,000

Other services: Increase 17,000

“We saw impressive momentum in the first quarter of 2018 with more jobs added per month on average than in 2017,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, ADP Research Institute vice president and co-head.

“Midsized businesses added nearly half of all jobs this month, the best growth this segment has seen since the fall of 2014,” Yildirmaz said. “The manufacturing industry also performed well, with its strongest increase in more than three years.”

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