An Insider’s Look Into How Secondary Marketing Evaluates LOs

In this webinar we’ll explore the long-term financial impacts of renegotiations, extensions and fallouts, plus basic guidelines to be viewed as a professional by your secondary marketing department

HousingWire Annual Virtual Summit

Sessions from HousingWire Annual 2021 are going to be virtually streamed on October 25. Register now for FREE to tune into what housing industry leaders had to say this year!

How Freddie Mac is addressing affordable housing challenges

Freddie Mac is focused on addressing limited access to credit, housing inequalities, creation and preservation of affordable housing supply and advancement of homeownership education.

A NAR board member tells (almost) all

For this week’s Houses in Motion, a miniseries that is part of HousingWire Daily, we spoke with Lisa Dunn about the pressing issues in real estate, including disclosure of agent commission.

Mortgage

What would it take to see mortgage rates drop below 2%?

Spoiler alert: it wouldn't be good news

Since 2015, my forecasting models have predicted the 10-year Treasury yield would stay in the range of 1.60% to -3%. Tangential to this, the next recession treasury yields, and thus mortgage rates, would drop because lower growth would drive yields and rates lower. The four-decade prolonged downturn in the rate of growth in the economy and inflation mirrors falling bond yields and mortgage rates.

Before the pandemic, it was hard work trying to convince other economists that we would see a 30-year fixed mortgage rate drop below 3%. In 2018, a crafty photographer caught the bemused look on my face when one of my colleagues chastised me for predicting rates would go lower instead of higher. 

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Logan Mohtashami, HW Housing Data Analyst, at the 2018 Orange County Economic Throwdown Conference, being told rates have to go higher.  (10-year yield on this date was 3.24%) 

Evangelizing a consistent thesis for years on end is a bit boring, but I would rather be dull and steady than the alternative. I admit I am a big fan of sticking to economic models that allow for reliable predictions, repetitive as they may be, until different variables change the course of the economy. 

Today, in the middle of a world pandemic, my bond market model is allowing for a 30-year fixed mortgage rate to drop as low as 1.875%  – but the questions remain, will it, and what will it take to get there?

10 year

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