Lunch & Learn: Are appraisals the next big opportunity in mortgage fulfillment?

This Lunch & Learn for mortgage lenders will explore the evolution of the appraisal process as well as opportunities for innovation.

Why brokerages and mortgage lenders are rushing into JVs

Joint ventures are suddenly stitched into the fabric of a handful of national brokerages. But the idea of the joint venture collides with the loose, informal networks that color the American housing economy.

How to simplify the appraisal process for everyone in today’s hot market

While the world might be slowly getting back to normal, the housing boom is far from over. Appraisers need to make sure they have the right tools to manage the high demand.

Robert Dietz on why the single-family rental market is growing

In this episode of HousingWire Daily, NAHB's Robert Dietz explains why the marketshare of single-family rentals is growing despite strong homebuyer demand. He also discusses the NAHB’s latest Housing Market index.

Politics & MoneyReal EstateMortgage

We need higher mortgage rates to cool the housing market

Housing 2021 isn't the housing bubble of 2005

The years 2020-2024 will have the best housing market demographics ever recorded in U.S. history, with the lowest mortgage rates recorded in history. When you have these two titans acting in unison, it can potentially accelerate real home prices in an unhealthy way. 

In 2020, the year of COVID-19, existing home sales ended at a respectable 5,640,000. That is roughly only 130,000 higher than the levels we saw in 2017. But sales should have ended the year more in the range of 5,710,000-5,840,000 if we stayed true to the trend line we had established by February 2020, before the COVID crash. We were and still are playing catch up to the lost demand during the COVID-19 shutdown period.

Purchase applications give a right direction trend 30-90 days ahead, and they are now averaging 12.8% year-over-year growth from last year. This is a tad better than I expected. 

So far this year, the weekly Mortgage Bankers Association purchase application data compared to last year looks like this: +3%; +10%; +15%; +16%; +16%; +17%. That is still growing a bit better than the peak rate of growth I was looking for at 11% before March 18 arrived, and all economic data went haywire crazy on year-over-year comps.

The last existing home sales print came in at 6,760,000; we are about to get another report this coming Friday. We are not trending at this sales level today, and I expect sales to moderate more toward the 6.2 million level or lower. However, my fear for the years 2020-2024 is that the built-in demographic demand would cause real home prices to grow too fast. We are seeing the early stages of this take hold.

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