If and when the federal government implements a refinance program to help underwater borrowers qualify for new loans at low interest rates, it’s likely the plan will be limited in scope and impact, according to a new research note from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. The reality, according to Brian Gardner, senior vice president of Washington research at KBW, is it seems to have taken the Obama administration a long time to reach an agreement with the Federal Housing Finance Agency on how to restructure the federal refinance program. KBW believes any type of refinance program proposed will be limited to a modification of the existing Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP. KBW also evaluated the jobs plan introduced by President Obama last week, calling it short on information related to housing, but likely to pass on certain issues, including a plan to extend cuts on payroll taxes. “As economists try and estimate the impact that these proposals might have on GDP, we should note that most estimates of the multiplier effect from the 2009 stimulus bill were overly optimistic and we think that estimates of the impact of the current plan should be viewed with some skepticism,” the KBW note concluded. The president’s $450 billion jobs package includes payroll tax breaks for employees and employers, while also providing a $4,000 tax credit for employers who hire workers that have been unemployed for at least six months or more. KBW is far from sold in the effectiveness of the plan, writing in the note “as economists try and estimate the impact that these proposals might have on GDP, we should note that most estimates of the multiplier effect from the 2009 stimulus bill were overly optimistic and we think that estimates of the impact of the current plan should be viewed with some skepticism.” Write to: Kerri Panchuk.