Calling bottom on collapsing home prices is a longstanding topic of debate, but distressed loan purchaser Kondaur Capital Corp. cautions about housing prices falling further still. In a conversation with HousingWire, Kondaur chief executive Jon Daurio joined Moody’s Investors Service analysts saying he expects prices to fall another 20%. Moody’s again today downgraded ratings on multiple residential mortgage-backed securities, stating that it sees increasing potential for a double-dip recession that would cause home prices to decrease another 20%. Daurio said he expects the drop to occur over the next three years. “There may be isolated pocket communities that may not experience this much of a drop — and even may have some moderate price appreciation — but those are the rare exceptions,” he said. Daurio said the unemployment rate is unlikely to improve and could, in fact, get worse. The sustainability of record low mortgage rates is feeble, rising interest rates will have an unbelievably negative impact on the economy, the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) is failing, credit will further tighten, and Federal Housing Administration loans will become the new subprime, he said. Although Daurio believes the faltering state of the economy will bring housing prices to a mid-90s level, he said this recession and its market fluctuations are completely unprecedented. “We’re in unique times,” Daurio said. “We haven’t had this much national debt on the balance sheet before. Federal and state governments’ balance sheets are insolvent. There are just far too many people with homes and loans they can’t afford.” Write to Christine Ricciardi.
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