The home value forecast from Pro Teck Valuation Services reveals the impact low housing inventory has on home prices, which it calls the sold-to-list price ratio.
In the May update, the Honolulu, Tucson, San Francisco and Chicago metro areas are highlighted to determine how the indicator has been useful from a historical perspective as well as in current market conditions to best predict home price appreciation in markets.
"While many were predicting that REO and the 'shadow inventory' would keep real estate markets depressed, in reality the shortage of housing inventory has lead buyers to bid more competitively against one another leading to significant home price increases and tighter housing conditions," said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services.
The sold-to-list price ratio typically fluctuates between 92% and 98%, but can exceed 100% in very hot markets, according to the authors of the home value forecast.
"The sold-to-listed price ratio has historically lead home prices by approximately six months over the past three real estate cycles and its turning points have been excellent signals for the same in condo prices," added O’Grady.
The May home value forecast update also provides a listing of the top-10 best and worst performing metros as ranked by its market condition ranking model. Sales/listing activity and prices, months of remaining inventory, days on market, sold-to-list price ratio and foreclosure and REO activity are all indicators of the best and worst markets.
"Two of the top markets this month are in Nevada (Las Vegas-Paradise and Reno-Sparks), both of which had been very distressed since their respective market peaks in 2005 and 2006. Also, California continues to be well represented on the list by Los Angeles, Oakland, and Sacramento metros," said Michael Sklarz, principal of collateral analytics and contributing author to Home Value Forecast.
Sklarz added, "Nashville’s metro area is a new entrant this month. Although the market has a more shallow correction than many of the other markets in the recent recession, it appears to be experiencing improving overall economic conditions and one of the most affordable markets in the U.S. now."
"The bottom ranked metros also represent an interesting mix around the U.S. While all have nine to thirteen Months of Remaining Inventory, many of the indicators are showing positive trends even for the bottom metros area this month," added Sklarz.