Dollar implications for additional QE + Yuan appreciation
Wall Street was abuzz on Tuesday with the idea of the Fed coming in with an additional $1 trillion of Quantitative Easing. The idea isn’t exactly new because PIMCO (and others) have been talking about it for several weeks. Today, Jan Hatzious of Goldman Sachs said that further QE on this magnitude would add about 0.4 percentage points to real GDP. The speculation is that the Fed will concentrate its purchases on Treasuries rather than agency MBS or debt in order to take the benchmark 10 year below 2%, and bonds rose along with stocks for most of the day as the dollar declined sharply against all currencies save the Yen. Also helping the dollar lower on Tuesday was the yuan, which surged to the strongest level since 1993 on the idea that the Chinese will allow faster appreciation to head off U.S. trade sanctions. The U.S. House Ways and Means Committee will meet to discuss China’s currency policy on Wednesday and Thursday.