Warning: Early GDP indicator flashing red

Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast dropping ominously

The advance estimate for the first quarter domestic gross domestic product isn’t due out until April 29, but there’s signs of trouble ahead.  

The Atlanta Federal Reserve GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 1.2% on March 2, down from 1.7% on February 26.

The nowcasts for first-quarter real residential and nonresidential structures investment and for real state and local government spending all declined following Monday's construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced Monday that construction spending during January 2015 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $971.4 billion, 1.1% below the revised December estimate of $982.0 billion.

The January figure is 1.8% above the January 2014 estimate of $954.6 billion.

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $697.6 billion, 0.5% below the revised December estimate of $700.9 billion. 

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