Members of the National Association of Realtors expect home prices to increase modestly in the next 12 months, with the median expected price increase at 3.5%, according to data gathered from the August 2014 Realtor Confidence Index Survey.

This tracks closely, but more modestly, with estimates from Capital Economics, which told HousingWire Monday that it expects annualized growth to slow to 4% in the coming year, and estimates from Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, who expects 4-5% home price growth.

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Graph: National Assocation of Realtors

Local conditions vary with expectations anchored on factors such as the level of inventory, the state of the local job market, and credit conditions.

The map below shows the median expected price change in the next 12 months by the state of Realtor respondents in the June–August 2014 surveys.

Respondents from Florida, Texas, Hawaii, and the District of Columbia expected prices to increase in the range of 5-6%.

These states are experiencing strong job growth from the technology and oil industries.

Respondents in the Great Lakes area where manufacturing, led by the automotive sector, has made a comeback, also expect respectable price growth of 3-5%.