Peak House Prices Will Return to Sand States after 2025: Fiserv

Housing markets that experienced the greatest inflation in house prices — including certain metro areas in sand states California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada — will not see a return of peak-level home prices before 2025, according to financial services technology provider Fiserv. According to the Fiserv Case-Shiller indices measuring historical home price data and forecasts for more than 375 local markets, scattered metropolitan areas could recover home prices before 2013 (highlighted below, in blue): “Nationally, Fiserv Case-Shiller data points to a further 7% decline in home prices through the end of this year, with a prolonged recovery beginning early in 2011. In many markets, the emphasis is on the word ‘prolonged,'” said Fiserv chief economist David Stiff in a statement this week. Other factors besides a run-up in house prices are dragging down recovery times in the industrial Midwest — including Michigan, Indiana and Ohio — where steep job losses in the manufacturing sector could keep housing demand low for some time. But the data is not “uniformly grim” across all states, Stiff added. A number of trends have defined initial signs of recovery in the housing market in recent months, including rising home sales. In particular, Pittsburgh, PA; Columbia, SC; and several metropolitan areas in Texas, Washington and upstate New York could see peak-level prices return within the next few years. Write to Diana Golobay.