In several previous articles I have opined that an increase in mortgage rates may be our only hope for slowing the escalation of home prices that we’ve been experiencing for the past year. With mortgage rates hitting above 3% last week for the first time since June, it’s a good time to revisit this conversation and what we should expect next for mortgage rates.
Since the summer of 2020, I have argued that if mortgage rates could get over 3.75%, days on market would rise and the rate of price growth would cool. This will be bullish for housing because the price gains we have been seeing are extremely unhealthy.
A common theme in the interviews I have done in 2021 has been that this is the unhealthiest housing market since 2010 — not because we have a credit boom or a bubble forming, but because we have forced bidding on too few homes. We need the days on market to grow out of the teenager stage.