Mike Fratantoni on the MBA’s mortgage market outlook

Fratantoni discusses the MBA's November forecast, which includes revised estimates for Q3 and Q4, as well as predictions for next year’s purchase market.

Housing market forecast: It’s about politics, not economics

COVID protections for households and support for financial markets are set to expire at the end of 2020. How will this impact the housing market in 2021?

Buying a home in a competitive market

We couldn’t be more thrilled about interviewing a real estate agent for the second episode of Girlfunds, a show where we give you our two cents on money.

Building the one-touch digital mortgage

As Katherine Campbell drives toward a one-touch mortgage, she’s taking time to share what she has learned along the way.

Mortgage

What would it take to see mortgage rates drop below 2%?

Spoiler alert: it wouldn't be good news

Since 2015, my forecasting models have predicted the 10-year Treasury yield would stay in the range of 1.60% to -3%. Tangential to this, the next recession treasury yields, and thus mortgage rates, would drop because lower growth would drive yields and rates lower. The four-decade prolonged downturn in the rate of growth in the economy and inflation mirrors falling bond yields and mortgage rates.

Before the pandemic, it was hard work trying to convince other economists that we would see a 30-year fixed mortgage rate drop below 3%. In 2018, a crafty photographer caught the bemused look on my face when one of my colleagues chastised me for predicting rates would go lower instead of higher. 

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Logan Mohtashami, HW Housing Data Analyst, at the 2018 Orange County Economic Throwdown Conference, being told rates have to go higher.  (10-year yield on this date was 3.24%) 

Evangelizing a consistent thesis for years on end is a bit boring, but I would rather be dull and steady than the alternative. I admit I am a big fan of sticking to economic models that allow for reliable predictions, repetitive as they may be, until different variables change the course of the economy. 

Today, in the middle of a world pandemic, my bond market model is allowing for a 30-year fixed mortgage rate to drop as low as 1.875%  – but the questions remain, will it, and what will it take to get there?

10 year
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