The next wave of servicing regulation is coming – Are you ready?

Join this webinar to learn what servicers need to know about recent and upcoming servicing compliance regulations and strategies experts are implementing to prepare for servicing regulatory audits.

Inside Look: RealTrends 2021 Brokerage Compensation Study

Steve Murray, senior advisor to RealTrends, gives an exclusive first look at the 2021 RealTrends Brokerage Compensation Report.

Logan Mohtashami on trends in forbearance exits

In this episode of HousingWire Daily, Logan Mohtashami discusses several hot topics in the housing market, including recent trends in forbearance exits and future homebuyer demand in the midst of inventory shortages.

How lenders can prepare for increasing regulatory pressures

As compliance becomes an increased focal point for mortgage lenders and investors, staying ahead of state and federal regulations can be the difference between a flourishing business and one mired in fines.

Mortgage

What would it take to see mortgage rates drop below 2%?

Spoiler alert: it wouldn't be good news

Since 2015, my forecasting models have predicted the 10-year Treasury yield would stay in the range of 1.60% to -3%. Tangential to this, the next recession treasury yields, and thus mortgage rates, would drop because lower growth would drive yields and rates lower. The four-decade prolonged downturn in the rate of growth in the economy and inflation mirrors falling bond yields and mortgage rates.

Before the pandemic, it was hard work trying to convince other economists that we would see a 30-year fixed mortgage rate drop below 3%. In 2018, a crafty photographer caught the bemused look on my face when one of my colleagues chastised me for predicting rates would go lower instead of higher. 

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Logan Mohtashami, HW Housing Data Analyst, at the 2018 Orange County Economic Throwdown Conference, being told rates have to go higher.  (10-year yield on this date was 3.24%) 

Evangelizing a consistent thesis for years on end is a bit boring, but I would rather be dull and steady than the alternative. I admit I am a big fan of sticking to economic models that allow for reliable predictions, repetitive as they may be, until different variables change the course of the economy. 

Today, in the middle of a world pandemic, my bond market model is allowing for a 30-year fixed mortgage rate to drop as low as 1.875%  – but the questions remain, will it, and what will it take to get there?

10 year

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