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MBA predicts record purchase mortgage volume in 2021

A rebounding economy is likely to see higher mortgage rates

[CORRECTION: The story has been updated from an earlier version. The MBA announced $3.39 trillion in mortgage originations, and not $3.9 trillion.]

The Mortgage Bankers Association on Tuesday released revised estimates for the third and fourth quarter of 2020 and predicted record purchase volume for 2021. Although the MBA expects decreased refinancings in 2021 and a decline in overall origination to around $2.56 trillion, that would still be the second-highest origination total in the last 15 years.

The rebounding economy is likely to mean higher mortgage rates, with the MBA forecasting 2.9% by the end of 2020, rising to 3.3% by Q4 2021.

The MBA is forecasting a rise in purchase originations to $1.59 trillion, which would break the previous record of $1.51 trillion set in 2005. However, the MBA sees refinances decreasing to $971 billion.

“The housing market has seen a meaningful rebound since the onset of the pandemic,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA chief economist. “Record-low mortgage rates have led to a surge in borrower demand for refinances and home purchases.”

For 2020, the MBA is estimating $3.39 trillion in mortgage originations – the highest since 2003 and a 50% increase from 2019. 


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That includes an expected 91.5% jump in refinance originations to $1.97 trillion – also the highest since 2003 – and a forecasted 16% rise in purchase originations to $1.42 trillion, the highest since 2005. 

Back in October, the MBA estimated total mortgage originations of $3.175 for 2020.  

The median price of new homes in 3Q20 was reported at $330,600. That is expected to rise to $339,000 in 4Q20. However, existing-home price averages are expected to drop again in 4Q20, from $297,200 to $294,900. This continues the downward trend from 2Q20, when existing home price averages were at $309,200.   

Other 2021 expectations from MBA include a growth rate of 3%, an unemployment rate of 5% by the end of the year, and an increasing 10-year treasury yield to 1.4% by Q4.

Comments

  1. Good morning and thanks for the summary. I believe this sentence – For 2020, the MBA is estimating $3.9 trillion in mortgage originations – the highest since 2003 and a 50% increase from 2019. – should read as “$3.39 trillion”, not $3.9 trillion.

    1. Good morning! Thank you for reaching out to us. We received an update this morning from MBA that the $3.9 trillion should be $3.3 trillion. We have made the correction. Thank you for reading HousingWire!

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