Majority of Euro Investors Say Worst is Over, Fitch

Fitch Ratings released highlights of its European investor survey for Q209, with the vast majority of respondents being asset managers, and reports that 72% now say that the worse of the crisis is over, compared to only 29% in Q109. Confidence in banks’ abilities to remain well-capitalized played a part in the rosy outlook. However, Fitch notes that perception on the duration of the recession is shortening and likely the largest driver behind the results. This development is also not isolated from the US markets, the credit rating agency adds. In the previous survey, 55% of investors believed the economic downturn would last longer than 24 months, compared to 18% today. In the US, the same percentage (44%?45% in both the Q109 and the Q209 surveys) believed the recession will last 12?24 months, but those believing it will last less than 12 months has jumped to 44% from 32%. There is a similar reduction in the percentages of investors believing it will be of more than 24 months’ duration, the survey finds. However, when broken down on a per asset valuation, the investors remained bullish only on RMBS. CDO outlook remains unchanged and a negative sentiment continues to surround CMBS. This is not unexpected, as the CRE market uncertainty (especially the short-term funding of long term projects) remains unclear. Write to Jacob Gaffney.

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