The number of delinquencies within the conduit/fusion space of commercial mortgage-backed securities rose 79% in 2010, ending December at 8.79% up from 4.9% a year earlier, according to Moody's Investors Service
Analysts said the rate also climbed 16 basis points last month from 8.63% in November. While the rate continues to increase, it slowed considerably during the second half of last year. And the average monthly rate of change was slightly lower than 2009 despite greater volatility and large increases early in 2010.
Moody's expects new CMBS issuance of about $37 billion in 2011 and projects its delinquency tracker to end this year between 9.5% and 11%. The rate of delinquencies should moderate as the "capital markets continue to heal and the flow of loans into special servicing is slowing."
Analysts also said loan resolution, which has "become more efficient as the crisis has worn on," has reduced the number of delinquent loans, but more may be on the way.
"The potential spike in defaults as loans from the peak of the CMBS market reach their maturity dates in the middle of the decade is still several years off," Moody's said.
Analysts said there were 325 new delinquencies within the space last month totaling about $3.7 billion down slightly from $3.8 billion worth of newly delinquent loans in November. The overall level of delinquencies remained muddled, according to Moody's, as new defaults were offset by loans that became current, were worked out or disposed of during the month.
Write to Jason Philyaw