Real Estate Valuations

Case-Shiller: Housing market now officially, completely recovered

Blitzer: Uncertainty remains on Trump impact

Wooden block house on money

Home prices increased in November, making the argument the housing market recovered completely from the housing crisis.

According to the latest data released Tuesday by S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, increased 5.6% annually, up from 5.5% from the previous month.

The 10-City composite increased by 4.5% from November 2015, up from 4.3% in October. Similarly, the 20-City Composite increased 5.3% year-over-year, up from 5.1% the month before.

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Case-Shiller

(Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, CoreLogic)

“With the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rising at about 5.5% annual rate over the last two-and-a-half years and having reached a new all-time high recently, one can argue that housing has recovered from the boom-bust cycle that began a dozen years ago,” said David Blitzer, S&P Dow Jones Indices managing director and chairman of the Index Committee. “The recovery has been supported by a few economic factors: low interest rates, falling unemployment, and consistent gains in per-capita disposable personal income.”

“Thirty-year fixed rate mortgages dropped under 4.5% in 2011 and have only recently shown hints of rising above that level,” Blitzer said. “The unemployment rate at 4.7% is close to the Fed’s full employment target. Inflation adjusted per capita personal disposable income has risen at about a 2.5% annual rate for 30 months.”

Seattle, Portland and Denver reported the highest annual gains among the top 20 cities for each of the past 10 months. In November, Seattle came in first with an increase of 10.4%, followed by Portland at 10.1% and Denver at 8.7%.

Monthly, the National Index increased by 0.2% in November. The 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite also both increased 0.2% for the month. After seasonal adjustment, however, the National index increased 0.8% and the 10-City and 20-City Composites increased 0.9% month-over month. After seasonally adjustment, all top 20 cities saw an increase in home prices.

“The home prices and economic data are from late 2016,” Blitzer said. “The new Administration in Washington is seeking faster economic growth, increased investment in infrastructure, and changes in tax policy which could affect housing and home prices.”

“Mortgage rates have increased since the election and stronger economic growth could push them higher,” he said. “Further gains in personal income and employment may increase the demand for housing and add to price pressures when home prices are already rising about twice as fast as inflation.”

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