Logan Mohtashami talks jobs report, mortgage forbearance
Today’s HousingWire Daily episode features an interview with HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami discussing his recent article on the latest jobs report and the most likely impact on the housing market and mortgage forbearance.
Mohtashami’s article is part of our HW+ premium membership community. When you go to sign up, use the code “hwpluspodcast100” to get $100 off your annual membership.
For some background on the interview, here’s a summary of the article:
The key to the U.S. getting back on track economically is for its citizens to freely walk the earth again without the existential threat of COVID-19. The U.S. is getting closer and closer to meeting that goal, while other countries are still trying to control the virus. Before the successful vaccination program, I targeted Aug. 31, 2021, as the launching point for when we can fully achieve this, with the mindset that all jobs lost to COVID would be back online by September 2022 or earlier. Despite the last sub-par jobs report, we are currently on track to satisfy that prediction as we should be able to walk the earth freely before the end of August. This is the furthest thing from a housing crash that we could expect.
In February 2020, we had 152,523,000 nonfarm payroll workers, which isn’t all the workers in America, but most of them. Today, in May 2021, we have 144,308,000 nonfarm payroll folks working.
In the previous expansion, which was the longest economic and job expansion in history, the all-time high for job openings was 7,574,000. Today we have roughly 7,367,000 job openings and that number should get to 10 million by the end of this new expansion. As you can see with the chart below, not only has the housing data performed much better during this crisis, but job openings are roughly 5.5 million higher today than the worst levels of the great financial crisis.
HousingWire Daily examines the most compelling articles reported across HW Media. Each afternoon, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsroom that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted by the HW team and produced by Alcynna Lloyd and Victoria Jones.
HousingWire articles covered in this episode:
- We’ve got rising home prices but no housing crash in sight
- What a dismal jobs report means for the housing market
- Mortgage forbearance drops to 4.36%, exits pick up steam