JPMorgan analysts expect policy uncertainty to plague mortgages
Analysts with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) expect uncertainty over the direction of government policy on the mortgage crisis to create further headwinds, according to the bank's latest Securitized Products Weekly report. The analysts also believe changes to the Home Affordable Refinance Program are coming after recent statements made by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The analysts project investor losses from any wide-scale, federally induced refi program even higher than the estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. Under the CBO's analysis, the program would cost the government roughly $600 million, prevent 111,000 defaults and result in losses of $13 billion to $15 billion for private investors. The Securities and Exchange Commission is reviewing the standards of mortgage real estate investment trusts because of issues related to leverage, transparency and corporate governance. JPMorgan analysts said REITs "have recently become a critical sponsor of the MBS market; this latest development puts REIT sponsorship in jeopardy if it passes." Write to: Kerri Panchuk.