Mortgage data provider CoreLogic is capping the amount of damage the Deepwater Horizon oil spill will have on regional housing markets at up to $3bn in losses over the next five years. Unless, of course, the “unlikely” worse case scenario happens: the spill reaches around the Florida Keys and up the Atlantic coast of Florida. In which case, damages may reach $28bn. The loss estimate for this year is $648m alone. The largest overall loss in amenity value would likely be in Pensacola ($1.6bn), followed by Gulfport ($1.2bn). According to a release by the company, there are 15 major counties stretching from the Gulf coast of Mississippi to the Atlantic coast of Florida with more than 600,000 residential properties within 1,000 meters of the coastline. CoreLogic implements a large array of data gathering at one of its two sites in North Texas. Using this information, the company can offer satellite-based risk assessment to properties. This includes risk of damage from brush fires, floods, hurricanes and in this case, an oil spill. Data is also compiled using public records and in-the-field assessment officers. It is important to note the immediacy of the models used by CoreLogic. For instance, the $3bn estimation is representative of the damage from this year annualized over the next half decade. Damage may be less if the clean-up picks up pace substantially, for example. More on how CoreLogic is able to put this information together is available by clicking here. Write to Jacob Gaffney.
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