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First quarter GDP holds steady at 3.1%

Current-dollar GDP rises to 3.8% in Q1's third estimate

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in the first quarter of 2019, according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Today's first quarter GDP estimate is based on more complete source data than was available for the advance numbers issued last month.

Real GDP growth in the first quarter primarily reflects upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, exports and residential fixed investment. These were offset by downward revisions to inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures and an upward revision to imports.

The chart below shows GDP is now up nearly one percentage point from the preceding quarter and the first quarter of 2018.

 (Click to enlarge; Courtesy of BEA)

First Quarter, 3rd Estimate, GDP growth

Real gross domestic income, or GDI, moved forward 1% in the first quarter, up from an increase of 0.5% in the fourth quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weighs GDP and GDI, rose 2.1% in the first quarter, moving forward from 1.3% in the fourth quarter.

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment and state and local government spending. These were partially offset by a negative contribution from residential fixed investment.

Here are updates to the previous estimate:

Real GDP: Remained at 3.1%

Current-dollar GDP: Increased to 3.8%, up from last estimate’s 3.6%

Real GDI: Decreased to 1%, down from last estimate’s 1.4%

Average of Real GDP and Real GDI: Decreased to 2.1%, down from last estimate’s 2.2%

Gross domestic purchases price index:  Increased to 0.8%, up from last estimate’s 0.7%

Personal consumption expenditures: Increased to 0.5%, up from last estimate’s 0.4%


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