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Politics & MoneyInvestmentsMortgage

Chance of a Fed rate hike in December? 100%

Bloomberg forecast based on futures trading

The odds that the Federal Reserve will elect to raise interest rates during the December meeting have reached 100%, according to the latest Bloomberg calculation based on futures trading.  

The last time the Fed chose to raise interest rates was in December of last year, which was the first time since June 2006.

During that meeting, the Federal Reserve increased the federal funds rate to a range of 0.25% to 0.50%, which is where the federal funds rate still sits today.

One year later, and after a lot of back and forth debate, the market is positive that rates will increase in the December meeting.

From the Bloomberg piece:

A Federal Reserve interest-rate increase next month is as certain as death and taxes for bond traders, as speculation mounts that Donald Trump’s reflationary policies will mean a quicker pace of monetary tightening.

The market-implied odds of action at the central bank’s Dec. 13-14 meeting have reached 100 percent, according to Bloomberg calculations based on futures. An auction of two-year Treasuries Monday drew the highest yield since 2009 before a sale of five-year debt Tuesday. A bond market gauge of inflation expectations is close to its highest level since 2015.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen recently implied that an interest rate hike is just around the corner, according to an article by Christopher Condon and Rich Miller for Bloomberg.

Yellen stated that a rate hike “could well become appropriate relatively soon if incoming data provide some further evidence of continued progress toward the committee’s objectives,” in her testimony before Congress’ Joint Economic Committee Thursday, according to the article.

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