Real Estate

Pro Teck: Why CBSAs don’t always give an accurate picture

Gulf growing between struggling and recovering communities

The Long Island core based statistical area of Nassau County-Suffolk County, New York, could be the country’s newest example of the ever-growing housing gap between hot and cold markets, according to Pro Teck Valuation Services’ Home Value Forecast.

Although pending home sales in April surged to the highest level in over a decade, according to the National Association of Realtors, not all markets are improving, and there is great variability even within markets.

It would seem that the Nassau-Suffolk CBSA is recovering nicely since it ranked seventh in the top 10 CBSAs. Sales are up 11%, active listings are down 44% and months of remaining inventory is down nearly 50%. This, combined with its 55% drop to an average 41 active days on market, shows that the area is a seller’s market.

In one community, Roslyn, home prices reached an all-time high, averaging almost $1.2 million. On the other hand, Island Park, New York, which is just 20 miles from Roslyn, seems to be just the opposite. Properties that peaked at about $500,000 in 2006 now average around $288,000.

"At Home Value Forecast we like to say that all real estate trends are local, and what's happening in one community doesn't translate to the next," said Tom O'Grady, Pro Teck Valuation Services CEO. "This is very true in Long Island, where the differences between wealthy communities and the rest is significant."

For this reason, averaging CBSAs can leave out parts of the picture, according to Pro Teck. While many communities may be nearing a recovery, others are still many lagging behind.

"Of the 143 ZIP codes we track in the Nassau-Suffolk CBSA, only 28 communities, 19.6% of the total, have exceeded pre-crash home price highs," O'Grady said.  "As the recovery continues, we look for that number to increase."

The wide range of market recovery can be seen in recent action in New York where homeowners struggling to keep their homes from falling into foreclosure can now access a $100 million lifeline in zero-interest loans from the state. The help comes from the Goldman Sachs $5 billion toxic mortgage settlement. 

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