While consumers lauded the recent plummet in oil prices, the true impact of the drastic decline typically takes two years to see.
Arch Mortgage Insurance Company released its Winter 2015 Edition of its Housing and Mortgage Market Review and the latest Arch MI Risk Index SM, analyzing the likelihood of home prices in a states being lower in two years, based on recent economic and housing market data.
The report focused on states with high levels of oil production and related employment, including Alaska, Colorado, Louisiana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas and Wyoming.
“While no one knows if current oil price levels will be sustained long-term, we view the dramatic decline in the price of oil as having a real and meaningful impact on the potential for home price declines in these regions. As a result, our ranking for the highest-risk states and MSAs has shifted significantly since our last publication of the Review, the Fall 2014 edition,” said Ralph DeFranco, Arch MI’s Senior Director of Risk Analytics and Pricing.
“Our findings in this edition show that, while the national average risk score remains low at 8%, risk scores of states with high levels of employment in the oil sector, including North Dakota and Louisiana, have risen sharply,” said DeFranco.
The Arch MI Risk Index weights various local economic and housing market factors, such as affordability, unemployment rates, economic growth rates, net migration and housing starts.
Here are the top 10 riskiest states:
10. Arizona 9% - minimal
9. Alabama 8% - minimal
8. Wyoming 17% - low
7. Texas 24% - low
6. Oklahoma 27% - low
5. New Mexico 19% - low
4. Colorado 17% - low
3. Alaska 20% - low
2. Louisiana 35% - moderate
1. North Dakota 37% - moderate