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Investments / The Ticker

Housing to play a significant role in economic expansion

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Interesting new paper here from UCLA’s Ed Leamer in which he argues that housing is the business cycle as it plays a prominent role in the conduct of monetary policy:

“Of the components of GDP, residential investment offers by far the best early warning sign of an oncoming recession. Since World War II we have had eight recessions preceded by substantial problems in housing and consumer durables.



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