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high risk

On March 24 the International Center on Housing Risk will release a briefing on its National Mortgage Risk Index and its State Mortgage Risk Indices, but HousingWire has a preview available now and the risk is growing.

The two indices provide a measure of how mortgage loans originated month by month would perform under severely stressed conditions.

International Center on Housing Risk co-directors Edward Pinto and Stephen Oliner will analyze the riskiness of single-family mortgage originations based on data through February 2014.

This month’s NMRI update shows 24% of all purchase loans have a debt-to-income ratio greater than the QM limit of 43%.

The Federal Housing Administration leads with 45% of purchase loans exceeding the 43% DTI limit.  Both are new series highs.

Indices for Fannie/Freddie and FHA/RHS both hit new highs in February, while composite index ticked down as FHA’s share eased.

Risk levels remain higher than is conductive to long-run market stability, their report says, with no discernible impact from QM regulation.

HousingWire will cover the release in detail on Monday, but a preview of the presentation is available now. You can read or download the presentation here.

The International Center on Housing Risk is a part of the American Enterprise Institute.

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