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March 2022 – The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts $2.59 trillion in overall origination activity in 2022, which is a 33% decline from the mortgage origination boom in 2021. At the same time, mortgage interest rates are increasing and housing inventory isn’t rising at the rate it needs to in order to meet demand. That means that mortgage lenders are fighting to gain a bigger share of a shrinking pie.
As Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, writes in a HousingWire commentary, “… for mortgage market participants, the intense competition in the mortgage market is apparent. However, there is always a benefit in diving a bit deeper into the data to examine how the competitive landscape has changed over time. In doing that, it appears that over the past 10 years, the mortgage market has become even more competitive compared to the period right before and right after the great financial crisis.”
While the outlook remains favorable for housing, the full effects of rate increases on home sales have yet to be felt, Fannie Mae said.