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Ten-X predicts increase in existing home sales

Entry-level inventory remains stubbornly low

Ten-X, an online real estate transaction marketplace, released its latest Residential Real Estate Nowcast showing that existing home sales will increase slightly.

According to the report, March sales will fall between seasonally adjusted rates of 5.41 and 5.77 million with a targeted number of 5.59 million. This is an increase of 2% from the National Association of Realtors’ February report, and an increase of 4.6% from last year’s report.

“As we enter the important spring selling season, consumer demand appears to be strong,” Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga said. “The big question is whether there will be enough homes for sale to meet that demand.”

“The underlying fundamentals of the market remain solid: job and wage growth are strong and interest rates remain low despite a slight uptick after the Fed move,” Sharga said. “But inventory — especially of entry-level homes — remains stubbornly low.”

Last month, Ten-X predicted February’s existing home sales would fall between annual rates of 5.34 to 5.69 million with a targeted number of 5.51 million. NAR’s February report came in at 5.48 million.

NAR’s pending home sales report jumped to the highest level in a year, indicating existing home prices in March will increase.

The Nowcast predicts the median existing home sales in March will continue to increase, falling between $220,885 and $244,136 with a target price point of $232,511. This would mark an increase of 1.8% from February and up 4.4% from the year before.

“As inventory supply continues to constrain the housing market, housing demand and home price growth continue to be strong, creating affordability concerns in some markets,” Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio said.

“Looking forward, it's possible that higher mortgage rates may contribute to more affordability obstacles for would-be homebuyers,” Muoio said. “In the meantime, the U.S. housing market will continue to forge ahead in a jagged fashion as the solid labor market supports demand.”

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