Despite a lower mortgage rate, December prepayments are forecast to drop slightly, according to the Royal Bank of Scotland monthly prepayment report.
The fall will be due to a combination of weaker seasonality, unchanged day-count and refinance index.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year survey rate rallied by 9 basis points from 3.47% in September to 3.38% in October. The refi index as at 5,100 level, which is the same from last month.
“However, weak seasonality and the upcoming holidays will likely slow turnover, countering the mortgage rally effect,” the report stated.
The 2011 coupon 3.5s and 4s are expected to prepay at 37 constant prepayment rate and 40 CPR, respectively. Additionally, the 2008 coupon 6% is projected to prepay at 40 CPR.
The detailed speed forecasts by product type, vintage and coupon are appended in the RBS monthly prepayment report.
Click on the graph to view Freddie Mac 30 year short-term prepayment forecast.