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Politics & Money

IMF says U.S.-China trade war is a drag on global economy

2019 will see the weakest GDP since 2008, IMF forecast says

The International Monetary Fund said global economic growth this year will be the weakest pace since the 2008 financial crisis as the U.S-China trade war and Brexit weigh on the world’s economies.

“Higher tariffs and prolonged uncertainty surrounding trade policy have dented investment and demand for capital goods,” IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said in the forecast released Tuesday.

The forecast for next year shows an improvement in global GDP, but a worsening for the U.S. economy. The global economy probably will expand 3.4% in 2020, up from 3% in 2019, the IMF said. But U.S. GDP probably will grow 2.1%, down from 2.4% this year.

“Global growth in 2020 is projected to improve modestly,” the report said. “However, unlike the synchronized slowdown, this recovery is not broad-based and is precarious.”

The winners next year include Germany, which will see its economy grow at a 1.2% pace, up from 0.5% this year. Canada’s GDP probably will expand at a 1.8% pace, up from 1.5% this year. And Russia’s GDP will probably grow 1.9% in 2020, up from a 1.1% pace in 2019.

Other 2020 gainers include Mexico, which will probably see an expansion of 1.3%, up from this year’s 0.4% pace, and India, which likely will grow 7% from 6.1% this year, the report said. China probably will see its GDP grow at a 5.8% pace in 2020, down from 6.1% this year, the IMF said.

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