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Incomes rise 4% in third quarter

Second estimate leaves GDP growth unchanged

Real gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter of 2018, according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

This revised GDP estimate is based on more complete source data than was available for the advance estimate issued last month. The chart below shows GDP is now up nearly two percentage points from the first quarter, and about one percentage point from the third quarter of 2017.

(Click to enlarge)

Q3 GDP, Nov. 28

(Source: BEA)

But while the second estimate left gross domestic product unchanged at 3.5% and is down from 4.2% in the second quarter, income growth posted a significant increase. 

Real gross domestic income growth is up 4% in the third quarter, compared to the 0.9% growth seen in the second quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weighs GDP and GDI, increased 3.8% in the third quarter, increasing from 2.5% from the second quarter.

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from non-residential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, federal government spending and state and local government spending.  

These were partly offset by negative contributions from exports and residential fixed investment.

An update to GDP released by BEA shows that the third quarter real GDP was unrevised from the advance estimate, which reflects upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory, that were offset by downward revisions to PCE and state and local government spending.

Here are updates to the previous estimate:

Real GDP: Remained unchanged at 3.5% in the second estimate

Current-dollar GDP: Increased to 5%, up from last estimate’s 4.9%

Real GDI:  Came in at 4%

Average of Real GDP and Real GDI: Came in at 3.8%

Gross domestic purchases price index:  Remained unchanged at 1.7% at the second estimate

Personal consumption expenditures: Decreased to 1.5%, down from last estimate’s 1.6%

3d rendering of a row of luxury townhouses along a street

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