Experts: Fed won’t raise interest rates because job openings only barely increased

Companies still holding off hiring

This morning's JOLTS report showed job openings barely increased in April to 5.8 million. 

This number, compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, matches a record set last July, however chief financial officers indicate they may not be filling positions right away.

Whereas job openings may have risen, hires and quits fell,  stated Brent Nyitray, iServe Residential Lending director of capital markets, in an email to clients.

In fact, almost half, 47%, of U.S. financial managers are hiring less due to political uncertainty, according to an article by Michelle Jamrisko for Bloomberg. About 80% of of CFOs said the U.S. economy is at moderate to large risk because of the election uncertainty.

The survey was conducted by polling over 1,200 CFOs, including 626 from the U.S.

Actually, according to a recent special report by Redfin, 27% of homebuyers said this election will negatively affect the housing market. Of the three candidates, the one consumers chose as the best candidate for housing was “other.”

The latest labor market report was shockingly low with an increase of just 38,000, much lower than the expected 162,000.

From the Bloomberg article:

The report included moderately encouraging news for some U.S. workers, as companies ranked the difficulty hiring and retaining skilled employees as their second-biggest concern, up from fifth last year. While payroll gains have cooled, this tightness in the market could cause wage pressures to bubble up, said Campbell R. Harvey, a professor at the Duke University Fuqua School of Business and a founding director of the survey.

The lack of growth in the labor market continues to push back at the possibility of an interest rate hike.

“The sudden stop in employment growth rules out any chance of a rate hike from the Fed at next week’s FOMC meeting, particularly now that the UK vote on whether to leave the European Union appears to be going down to the wire,” Capital Economics Chief Economist Paul Ashworth.

“A quick rebound in payroll employment growth in June and a decisive UK vote to remain in the EU could yet persuade the Fed to raise interest rates in late July,” Ashworth said. “At this stage, however, a delay until the September FOMC meeting is perhaps more likely.”

On the other hand, some still say that a rate hike this summer could still be coming, and that other factors in the labor market have been more positive. 

“My overall assessment is that the current stance of monetary policy is generally appropriate, in that it is providing support to the economy by encouraging further labor market improvement that will help return inflation to 2%,” Yellen said.

“At the same time, I continue to think that the federal funds rate will probably need to rise gradually over time to ensure price stability and maximum sustainable employment in the longer run,” she said.

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