It’s time to love the housing market again
 | Logan Mohtashami Lead Analyst HousingWire |
Overview
The 2026 housing market was perfectly poised for growth, but the conflict in Iran has thrown a massive wildcard into the mix. Right now, everything hinges on whether this geopolitical tension causes bond yields to spike. That’s why we need to be in the same room, making sense of this chaotic market in real-time.
There’s a misconception circulating that uncertainty is holding the housing market back. But if COVID taught us anything, it’s that the market moves forward even in the unknown, which is exactly why industry leaders must stay relentlessly on top of the data. And during my keynote, I’ll walk you through just that.
Session Notes
Key takeaway
Housing analyst Logan Mohtashami said the housing market is showing early signs of improvement, supported by lower mortgage rates, improving mortgage spreads, stronger purchase application trends and inventory that is moving closer to seasonal norms. His central point: the market doesn’t need a return to 3% mortgage rates — rates near 6% can be enough to bring more buyers and sellers back.
What leaders need to know:
- Mortgage rates are the main variable. Mohtashami said mortgage rates are shaped by the relationship between the 10-year Treasury yield, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
- Mortgage spreads are providing relief. He said improving spreads are a key reason mortgage rates have been closer to the low-6% range instead of the 7% range.
- Demand is picking up. Mohtashami said purchase application data reached multiyear highs for the calendar week, with year-over-year growth signaling buyers are responding as affordability improves.
- New listings are moving toward normal. He said new listings are trending closer to typical seasonal levels — an important signal because most sellers become buyers.
- Inventory is healthier, not a warning sign. Mohtashami said higher inventory is giving buyers more options and helping cool home-price growth, giving wages a chance to catch up.
- The market can grow without a major rate collapse. Mohtashami said transaction volume can improve if rates hold near 6%, even without a return to ultra-low rates.
- Homeowners remain financially strong. He pointed to high equity levels, low loan-to-value ratios and low homeowner vacancy rates as evidence the market’s foundation is stronger than it was ahead of the 2008 crash.
HousingWire perspective
Mohtashami’s message for housing leaders was that the market isn’t broken — it’s recalibrating. Improving affordability, a healthier inventory picture and firmer demand are creating a runway for transaction growth without a return to 3% rates. The near-term opportunity is to use the data — and local market context — to help consumers, agents and lenders understand where conditions are improving and where real openings are emerging.
Presentation Materials
It’s time to love the housing market again
Download the full presentation from the session including charts, data visualizations, and key takeaways.
