TIAA Bank’s John Pataky on homebuyer demand
December 3, 2020
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In today’s HousingWire Daily episode, John Pataky, TIAA Bank’s executive vice president, discusses the nation’s lack of housing inventory and how it’s impacting homebuyer demand and home prices.
For some background on the interview, here’s a brief summary of HousingWire’s coverage on the latest housing starts report:
Single-family housing starts gained for the sixth consecutive month in October on an annualized pace not seen since April 2007, a Census Bureau report revealed.
Housing starts overall rose 4.9% in October compared to September’s pace and to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.53 million starts – the highest since this February. That growth was mostly driven by single-family housing starts, which increased by 6.4% month-over-month – up 1.18 million annualized units. Multifamily starts were virtually unchanged from September’s revised number.
“We expect the paths of single-family and multifamily starts to continue to diverge in the coming months,” said Doug Duncan, Chief Economist at Fannie Mae. “Low-interest rates, a tight supply of existing homes for sale, and a trend towards purchasing homes in suburban areas have contributed to strong demand for new single-family homes. In contrast, we believe a suburban shift and other COVID-19-related dynamics are putting downward pressure on multifamily demand in many urban areas.”
Duncan noted the pace of new home sales over the past six months has accelerated more quickly than the construction pace, suggesting home builders will have to play catch up relative to sales going forward.
According to Odeta Kushi, chief economist at First American, the construction industry faces several supply-side headwinds like increasing material costs (specifically rising lumber costs), a chronic lack of construction workers, a dearth of buildable lots, and restrictive regulatory requirements in many markets.
“The current housing market is characterized by robust homebuyer demand, but not enough homes for sale,” Kushi said. “There are signs that this situation may improve in the months to come. In October, single-family housing starts increased to a post-Great Recession high, increasing 29% from October 2019 as builders overcame these headwinds and broke ground on more homes. Single-family housing permits, a leading indicator of future starts, also increased by nearly 21% relative to one year ago.”
HousingWire Daily examines the most compelling articles reported from the HousingWire newsroom. Each afternoon, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsroom that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted by the HW team and produced by Alcynna Lloyd and Victoria Wickham.
HousingWire articles covered in this episode:
