The effect of regulation and housing policy on housing affordability
 | Isaac Boltansky Head of Public Policy Pennymac |
 | Rob Van Raaphorst Senior Vice President Rational 360 |
Overview
Housing affordability is a structural supply problem, not a demand problem. As policymakers take a closer look at housing policy and potential solutions, industry leaders are navigating competing narratives, proposals and headlines. This session focuses on how executives should think about housing policy today, including the federal levers that can be pulled, such as MBS-related actions. The goal is not prediction, but clarity on what deserves attention and how it fits into planning.
This session dives into:
- How leaders should evaluate housing policy amid constant change
- Ways policy decisions could create near-term relief and long-term supply growth
- How policy decisions are shaping the future of affordable housing
Session Notes
- Key Takeaway: In this policy-focused, interview-style session, Isaac Boltansky and Rob Van Raaphorst unpacked how Washington’s renewed attention to housing affordability is translating into administrative action over legislation, with the GSEs, FHFA, and regulatory levers—not Congress—likely to drive the most near-term impact on mortgage rates and affordability.
- Housing affordability is now a top-tier federal priority, but execution will favor administrative tools. While ideas like 50-year mortgages or portable mortgages grab headlines, the most realistic near-term actions are those that can be implemented by FHFA, Treasury, and the GSEs without congressional approval.
- GSE MBS purchases matter—but they are finite and politically timed. The initial announcement meaningfully tightened spreads, but current purchase authority could be exhausted by late summer, increasing pressure to expand capacity ahead of the midterm elections.
- FHFA and the GSEs are positioned as the primary affordability “release valve.” Tools like expanded MBS purchases, LLPA relief (especially for rate-and-term refis), and pricing adjustments are viewed as more actionable than waiting for a Fed pivot.
- A new Fed chair may change direction, but not overnight. Even with a more housing-friendly chair, consensus-building, institutional inertia, and competing priorities mean rate relief from the Fed will take time—reinforcing the focus on GSE-led interventions.
- Tax policy and capital gains rules are quietly constraining housing supply. Aging homeowners with large homes and significant unrealized gains are staying put due to tax disincentives, limiting turnover and inventory even as demographic needs shift.
- Manufactured and modular housing represent rare bipartisan momentum. Policy changes aimed at modernizing standards and expanding GSE securitization support could meaningfully lower costs, making this one of the few supply-side areas with real near-term traction.
- Conservatorship remains a feature, not a bug, for policymakers. While GSE reform and IPO discussions persist, conservatorship gives the government powerful tools to influence affordability—making a near-term exit unlikely despite ongoing debate.
- Leadership Lens: Housing leaders should expect affordability policy to advance through incremental, administrative moves rather than sweeping reform, with FHFA and the GSEs acting faster than Congress or the Fed. This creates both opportunity and risk: near-term rate relief is possible, but durable affordability gains will still require industry engagement, credible data, and sustained pressure on supply-side constraints.
