Real time market data & what we already know for 2026

Overview

The U.S. housing market is entering a new era. After four years of slow sales, rising prices and persistent affordability challenges, conditions are beginning to shift in favor of buyers. New data shows affordability is set to improve gradually in 2026. This improvement will not come from a dramatic price correction. Instead, it will come from an extended period of flat home prices, rising household incomes and moderating mortgage rates.

Another important shift is the fading lock-in effect. As more homeowners now hold mortgages above 6%, mobility is slowly returning to the market, easing the supply constraints that have defined recent years.

The change will be slow, but it is real and already underway. This session explains why affordability is improving, what is driving the transition and how housing leaders should think about market dynamics as conditions recalibrate in 2026.

Session Notes

Key Takeaway: Using live market indicators rather than lagging reports, Mike Simonsen showed that 2026 is shaping up as a slow-but-real recovery year: sales are finally tracking above last year, affordability is improving, but price pressure remains broadly negative. The market is thawing—not breaking out—and outcomes will hinge on rates, hiring, and regional inventory balance.
Sales are finally meeting expectations. Unlike last year—when weekly data consistently underperformed—early 2026 pending sales are running roughly 3–8% above last year, supporting a ~5% full-year growth outlook despite weather-driven volatility.
The “Great Stay” explains today’s regional divide. Americans are moving less, driven by job-hugging (low hiring rates) and locked-in mortgages, creating tight inventory and price resilience in the Midwest/Northeast while inventory builds and prices soften across much of the Sunbelt.
Withdrawn listings are a demand signal, not just shadow supply. Most withdrawals come from owner-occupiers delaying moves, representing two transactions waiting to happen, not excess investor inventory. As rates ease, many of these sellers are relisting.
Inventory growth is slowing fast—and that matters for future prices. National inventory is still up year over year (~9%), but far below last year’s ~30% surge; slowing supply growth today points to flatter prices in 2026 and into 2027.
Prices are already softening in real time. Asking price per square foot is ~1.7% lower than a year ago, and many Case-Shiller markets show decelerating or negative momentum—making near-term price declines plausible.
Price reductions remain elevated but are improving. Over 30% of active listings have cut prices, though this share has started to decline as demand firms—suggesting early signs of price stabilization if rates hold near the low-6% range.
San Francisco is the outlier. Fueled by AI-driven job growth, it’s the only major metro showing clear positive price and rent momentum; most other tech hubs have not followed.
Leadership Lens: 2026 is not a boom—but it is a transition year. Leaders should plan for modest sales growth, localized price weakness, and improving affordability, while watching hiring trends as closely as mortgage rates. The winners will be those who price realistically, engage frustrated would-be movers, and operate region by region—not on national averages alone.

Presentation Materials

Real time market data & what we already know for 2026

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