NAR’s Jessica Lautz on key real estate trends defining the market
 | Jessica Lautz Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President of Research National Association of Realtors |
Overview
Has homeownership become a luxury good? While all-cash homebuyers are at an all-time high, first-time buyers are at a record low. Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors, shares what to expect this year.
In this session, she’ll dive into NAR’s datasets to reveal the trends shaping real estate — home sales, inventory, demographic shifts and buyer behavior. In this core Knowledge Session she’ll teach you how to separate real market signals from noise and turn complex data into practical takeaways.
Session Notes
- Key Takeaway: Drawing on national and local data, Jessica Lautz outlined a cautiously improving housing outlook, emphasizing that while lower rates should lift sales activity in 2026, deep inventory shortages, affordability constraints, and demographic shifts will continue to shape who buys, where they buy, and how they finance homes.
- Lower mortgage rates should drive a meaningful rebound in activity, even if volumes remain historically constrained. NAR expects rates in the 6% range to support roughly a 14% increase in sales, signaling improvement rather than a full return to pre-pandemic transaction levels.
- Inventory remains structurally undersupplied despite recent gains. Even with double-digit inventory growth in some markets, supply remains well below February 2020 levels, with an estimated national housing shortfall of roughly 4.7–5 million homes.
- Housing equity is reshaping demand and buyer behavior. Massive price gains over the past five years have fueled a surge in cash buyers—especially among baby boomers—but also enabled repeat buyers and even a growing share of first-time buyers to rely on financial assets rather than traditional savings or family help.
- Affordability pressures persist, particularly for first-time buyers. Modest improvements have come from slightly lower rates and rising wages, but qualifying incomes remain near six figures, down payments are at multi-decade highs, and first-time buyers now represent just 21% of the market.
- Demographic shifts are redefining housing demand. Older repeat buyers with significant equity dominate transactions, while younger households face delayed entry, changing household structures, and rising reliance on rentals due to limited for-sale inventory.
- Leadership Lens: Leaders should plan for a market where activity improves unevenly and locally, driven by rate relief and equity-rich repeat buyers rather than a broad affordability reset. Success will depend on understanding demographic dynamics, cash-driven competition, and the persistent challenges facing first-time buyers as the market gradually normalizes rather than fully resets.
Presentation Materials
NAR’s Jessica Lautz on key real estate trends defining the market
Download the full presentation from the session including charts, data visualizations, and key takeaways.
