How the Mortgage Intent Index is transforming forecasting
 | Craig Ungaro COO AnnieMac Home Mortgage |
 | Thomas Lloyd Chief Strategy Officer Xactus |
Overview
Join Xactus Chief Strategy Officer for a dynamic discussion with AnnieMac Home Mortgage’s COO, Craig Ungaro, on how the Mortgage Intent Index is being used in real-world operations today. Craig will share why traditional application data lags too far behind, why benchmarking is essential in an industry that swings 50–80% seasonally, and how the Index is enabling more accurate forecasting, stronger service levels, and better-quality outcomes. This session offers a rare look at how leading lenders are using intent data as a true forward-looking benchmark.
Session Notes
- Key Takeaway: Craig Ungaro and Thomas Lloyd introduced the Mortgage Intent Index as a true top-of-funnel signal—capturing borrower behavior before applications, locks, or closings. The core shift: lenders can now benchmark early demand in near real time and separate market movement from execution quality.
- redit-pull data fills a critical forecasting gap. By aggregating pre-qual, pre-app, and soft/hard credit pulls across ~30% of the market, the index reveals borrower intent well ahead of traditional MBA application data.
- Relative performance matters more than raw volume. Operators can finally see whether their growth is market-driven or execution-driven by comparing internal credit pulls against the national index.
- Pull-through is the real profit lever. With industry averages near 1-in-5, even small improvements in credit-to-close conversion materially impact profitability—especially when tracked by region and LO cohort.
- Weather, seasonality, and noise are normalized. January strength, February storm drag, and weekly rebounds were clearly visible—allowing leaders to contextualize short-term volatility instead of overreacting to it.
- Forecasting is shifting earlier in the cycle. A new holiday-adjusted model points to ~8.6% year-over-year growth for 2026 at mid-range rate assumptions, giving operators earlier staffing and capacity signals.
- Time-to-conversion varies dramatically by market. Credit pull → application windows can range from weeks to 60–75 days, making local interpretation essential for planning and rate-response timing.
- Leadership Lens: Forecasting advantage is moving upstream. Leaders who pair intent-level data with pull-through discipline can plan staffing sooner, spot underperformance faster, and act before rate windows close. The edge won’t come from guessing volume—it will come from knowing when demand is real and whether your organization is capturing it better than the market.
Presentation Materials
How the Mortgage Intent Index is transforming forecasting
Download the full presentation from the session including charts, data visualizations, and key takeaways.
