Although coastal tech hubs have been home to some of the hottest real estate markets in recent years, Trulia expects that affordable inland cities will reign all in 2019.
“Rising mortgage rates are exacerbating affordability issues that have been driving people out of expensive coastal metros for the past few years,” Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather said.
In order to determine which real estate markets will be booming next year, Trulia measured five key factors from 2018, ranging from affordability to adult population.
These are Trulia’s key metrics:
- Job growth over the past year, as a measure of a robust economy.
- Vacancy rates, as an indicator that housing supply does not exceed demand.
- Good starter-home affordability, as a signal that first-time home buyers stand a chance at buying a home.
- More inbound than outbound home searches on Trulia, as a gauge that more people are interested in that market than those looking to leave.
- A large share of the adult population under the age of 35, which represents more potential first-time buyers.
According to Trulia’s research, the video below highlights the top five markets to watch in 2019:
As for the overall health of the housing market, the company believes 2019 will be a year of moderation and continued transition.
“After several years of breakneck appreciation following the end of the housing recession, the latter half of 2018 may have marked a turning point and the beginning of a return to more normalcy and balance in the market,” the company said in a report.
“Next year will continue to bring more sanity to the market for home buyers frustrated by years of stiff competition and chronically low inventory. But affordability concerns will still plague the market, especially as mortgage rates rise, putting buyers in a wait-and-see mode.”
According to Trulia, sellers will probably think twice before listing in an environment that may not be as lucrative as it was in recent years, therefore slowing buying and selling activity.
NOTE: Trulia utilized data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Postal Service, U.S. Census Bureau and more to calculate the top markets.