Items Tagged with 'U.S. economy'


  • U.S. housing market is "anemic" and "lackluster," says NY Fed

    Economic data indicates "implied path" of Fed rate is downward, economists say
    The Federal Reserve Bank of New York describes U.S. home sales as “soft” and “anemic” in a Monday report. Fed economists pointed to June’s existing home sales level, which was 1.7% below a year ago, as part of the reason for their conclusion: “Home sales remain lackluster.”
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  • Economists warn of dangers trade war escalation poses to housing and economy

    NAR's Yun says mortgage rates are falling "for the wrong reason"
    A widening trade war sent U.S. stock markets into the biggest rout of 2019 on Monday, which caused mortgage rates to tumble, but there’s more to the housing market than just financing rates. If the trade war causes a jobs-cutting recession in the U.S., “low interest rates will not help home sales nor home prices,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist said.
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  • Unemployment rate holds at 3.7% in July as hiring slows

    Economy adds 164,000 jobs, led by business services and health care
    The U.S. economy added 164,000 jobs in July, fewer than June’s downwardly revised pace of 193,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate was 3.7%, matching last month’s rate. Economists expected the so-called nonfarm payroll number to rise by 165,000 and the unemployment rate to drop to 3.6%, which would have tied the 50-year low set in April and May.
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  • Cheap rates may push refis to a 3-year high

    MBA forecast says refi volume will grow to $180 billion this quarter
    Cheap rates could push mortgage refinancings to an almost three-year high in the current quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in their latest forecast. The refi volume probably will grow to $180 billion in 2019’s third quarter, the group said. That would be the highest since the $265 billion of refis in 2016’s fourth quarter, according to MBA data. The refi share probably will be 33%, the highest since the first quarter of 2018 when it was 37%, the forecast said.
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  • Fannie Mae lowers mortgage rate forecast and says home-price growth will accelerate

    Mortgage giant predicts 30-year fixed rate will average 3.7% in 2019’s second half
    Fannie Mae issued a new forecast that predicts the average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage will be 3.7% in the second half of 2019, down from the 3.9% the mortgage financier called for a month ago. Unemployment probably will average 3.7% this year and 4% in 2020.
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  • Wondering why low mortgage rates haven't goosed the housing market? Here's the answer

    American household income fell in May, washing out the effect of low rates
    You can't get a mortgage if you don't have enough income to cover the payments. American household income fell in May, even with the unemployment rate at the lowest level in almost 50 years. Stagnant or even falling wages are making it tougher for Americans to buy homes as prices continue to rise, said Robert Dietz, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. That explains why cheap rates haven't goosed the housing market, he said.
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  • Fannie Mae downgrades economic forecast citing "ratcheting up of trade tensions"

    Says 2020 will be the worst year since the Great Recession
    Fannie Mae downgraded its forecast for U.S. economic growth, citing a "ratcheting up of trade tensions," and said 2020 will see the worst economy in more than a decade. The mortgage giant revised its projection for GDP growth to 1.5% for next year, which would be the worst performance since a 2.5% contraction in 2009, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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  • Dueling polls on Fed's next move suggest the safe bet is a July rate cut

    Only 2 out of 46 economists in WSJ poll say the FOMC will act at next week's meeting
    Traders in futures markets are signaling a 22.5% probability of a Fed rate cut next week and an 86% chance of a cut at or before its July 30-31 meeting, according to CME Group. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal gave a different picture: About 0.5% said they expect a move next week and 40% pegged it to the July gathering. That makes July the safe bet, with perhaps language added to the FOMC’s June statement aimed at reassuring markets.
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  • Jobs Report: Private sector hiring slows as construction, manufacturing shed jobs

    Companies add fewest jobs in 18 months
    The pace of hiring slowed in March as employers fretted about a slowing economy. Companies hired 129,000 employees, the slowest pace in 18 months, according to a report today from ADP and Moody's Analytics. Goods-producing jobs, such as construction and manufacturing, contracted for the first time since December 2016.
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  • JPMorgan Chase chief economist bets against 2020 recession

    "The economy is slowing, but it is not going to go into a recession"
    Anthony Chan, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, is confidently forecasting 2% economic growth in the year ahead and shooting down fears of a looming recession. Speaking before a packed room at Chicago Agent Magazine's Accelerate Summit at the Chicago Merchandise Mart on Tuesday, Chan predicted the U.S. economy will grow in 2019, just not as rapidly as it did last year.
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