If you haven't figured it out just yet, the second quarter earnings about to be reported by more traditional banks and Wall Street's i-banks isn't exactly shaping up to be a pretty one. The latest case in point are woes at Cleveland-based regional bank KeyCorp
, which shook up the financial headlines this week with news that it would raise $1.5 billion in capital and cut its dividend.
What's amusing to almost no end is how ongoing financial woes continually lead analysts to the so-called "kitchen sink" analogy:
The Cleveland-based regional bank's troubles are an ominous sign for second-quarter results due next month. "It's going to be a disaster," said Jefferson Harralson, a bank analyst at Keefe, Bruyette and Woods in Atlanta. "It's going to be a big kitchen-sink quarter, but the issue is: Is it the first of many?"
For many financials, we've been hearing from analysts that each quarter is the proverbial kitchen sink. For Wall Street's i-banks, that speculation was rampant in Q3 of last year. Then Q4. And again in Q1 of 2008. Each quarter the write-offs somehow seem to get bigger.
The fact that the same analogy is now being applied to regional banks can't bode well for the near-term future, in our estimation.
And are we the only ones that seem to recall KeyCorp rumored to be among suitors for fellow Ohio-based bank National City Corp., which is wrapped up with its regulators? Just imagine how great that
sort of marriage would have been.
Note: None of the staff contributing to this report held positions in National City or KeyCorp, and they're pretty glad they don't.