Monday Morning Cup of Coffeetakes a look at news coming across HousingWire’s weekend desk, with more coverage to come on bigger issues.
Friday’s awful, no good, terrible jobs report took the wind out of the sails of even the most ardent of optimists, with some analysts now suggesting it’s a prelude to a new recession. How did we get here? And why does it seem like we went from one recession to possibly the next, without any period of strong growth in between?
Well, Dodd Frank burdened small banks and every business they touch, there’s no getting away from that. The impact on small banks and small businesses was greater than the impact on large businesses that have access to capital markets.
Peter J. Wallison, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, examines whether this why we’re experiencing the slowest recovery in two generations.
If the costs Dodd-Frank has imposed on small banks are hurting small business, we should see a significant difference between the growth rates of small and large businesses since 2010. That is exactly what the data shows. In a Goldman Sachs report published in April 2015 and titled “The Two-Speed Economy,” the authors found that firms with more than 500 employees grew faster after 2010—the year of Dodd-Frank’s enactment—than the best historical performance over the last four recoveries. These firms largely had access to the capital markets for credit. However, jobs at firms with fewer than 500 employees declined over this period, although this group had grown faster than the large-firm group in the last four recoveries.
Here, then, is the source of the slow recovery from the 2008–09 recession. Although 64 percent of net new jobs in the US economy between 2002 and 2010 came from employment by small business, this source of growth has disappeared since the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act. While larger firms have access to credit in the capital markets, millions of small firms, limited to borrowing from beleaguered community banks, are not getting the credit they need to grow and create jobs.
Read his full piece here.
In case you missed it because you’ve been living under a rock, the TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure rule went into effect Oct. 3. This week the House of Representatives will have a vote on a bill that would formalize the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s hold harmless grace period that the CFPB is offering.
Rep. French Hill, R-Ark., who cosponsored the bill, urged quick passage of the bipartisan measure.
“I am encouraged that the CFPB and other financial regulators have acknowledged the need for some leniency for good-faith efforts to comply with an extremely complex rule,” Hill said. “This acknowledgment underscores the need for a formal hold-harmless period to protect the mortgage industry while transitioning to this new closing regime and preventing costly market disruptions and delays for American homebuyers.”
Speaking of bipartisan, our friends at the Bipartisan Policy Center will be hosting a discussion of the future of the GSEs this week in Washington.
The event will be on Tuesday from 10:30 am-12:30 pm ET at the BPC headquarters, and feature Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn.; Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va.; Kevin Chavers, managing director at BlackRock; Bon Ryan, acting deputy director of the Division of Conservatorship at the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and Pat Sinks, CEO of Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MTC).
Nic Retsinas, senior lecturer in Real Estate at Harvard Business School, will serve as moderator.
They will discuss conservatorship and bringing in private capital, with a focus on risk-sharing, specifically “front-end,” to make housing finance more sustainable
For more information, click here.
If you’re like me and I know I am, you’re a fan of South Park. Nestled between adolescent guy humor and tasteless jokes there is almost always brilliant and topical social satire and commentary. Last week they looked at the good and bad, and the serious and the silly side of trendy urban gentrification.
The folks at RentCafe offer this now: South Park Sparks Gentrification Watch - People in 20 U.S. Cities Name Their SodoSopa.
People around the country resonated with the changes the little town of South Park went through with the development of SodoSopa (South of Downtown South Park)
So RentCafe collected their stories – posted all over Reddit and Twitter, where the topic is trending – and put together this impressive list. Check it out.
The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center has posted a comment letter submitted to the Federal Housing Administration regarding FHA’s proposed revisions to the certification that lenders must provide for FHA mortgage insurance.
In their letter co-authors Jim Parrott, Laurie Goodman and Mark Zandi argue that the proposed certification, as written, will constrain access to mortgage credit.
The authors also offer a set of revisions that will more effectively ensure that lenders play by the rules without excluding the consumers FHA seeks to serve.
In their latest report, Redfin found that homes in the luxury markets they studied, defined as the priciest 5% of properties, increased a mere 0.4% in the second quarter from a year earlier. In contrast, prices in the bottom 95% of the market grew 10 times faster, increasing 4% during the same time period.
Meanwhile, sales of homes priced $1 million or more surged in the second quarter, increasing 14.2% from a year earlier. In fact, markets that saw the biggest decrease in luxury home prices had one thing in common — a large pickup in the number of high-end homes for sale since last year.
As prices in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. slumped 23% from last year, inventory of homes priced $1 million or more surged by 42%. Redfin saw similar double-digit growth in million-dollar homes for sale in other cities on the biggest luxury losers list including Santa Rosa, Calif. (37%), Houston (44%), Austin, Texas (27%), and Irvine, Calif. (27%). Of the 10 biggest price losers, only Los Angeles had a drop in both sale prices and inventory.
Of the more than 138 luxury markets studied, Miami Beach, Fla. was the most unequal. At nearly $6.59 million, average luxury prices were nearly 12 times greater than average prices in the other 95 percent of the market. In fact, the nine most unequal metros were all located on the southeast coast of Florida.
There’s little in the way of housing metrics this week, though we will get the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Thursday, where we get to see what the Fed was thinking when it punted on raising interest rates.
Two banks, Bank of Georgia in Peachtree City, Georgia and Hometown National Bank in Longview, Washington, failed the week ending Oct. 2, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.