In what will come as a complete surprise to an aggregate population of no one who has been paying attention, the administration that cooked the employment numbers right before the 2012 election and have repeatedly fudged the numbers on the Affordable Care Act have been cooking the numbers on housing.
Wednesday morning while daydreaming of turkey dinner and a Thursday Skyrim marathon, the new home sales report comes in from Census and as I thumb through it... well, things look funny.
What it says is that sales of new homes in the United States printed at an annual rate of 458,000 for the month of October, up 0.7% from September.
But wait, I remember reporting just last month that September’s print for new home sales was 467,000.
Let's be clear: I’m no mathematician but I play one on the Internet. So, even I know that 458,000 is less than 467,000.
When you read the fine print of Census estimates on new home sales, you notice they give a margin of error of a whopping ±15-19%.
This makes me want to ask the boffins at Census, “Bruh, do you even math?”
But I don’t say this because these are trained statisticians and they would just view me as a trained monkey writing for bananas.
This was just a revision, which happens to monthly reports all the time.
Surely there’s no regular pattern of this, I think, wondering why my inner dialog is so free from the usual swear words.
So I look at the last several months. And here is what I find.
(With a big ol’ cowboy hat tip to ZeroHedge, by the way, for the chart and the catch.)
I don’t know about you, but I’m seeing a pattern. Not one, two, trend – a real honest-to-Odin pattern. Five of the last five months we’ve had headlines of “New home sales beat expectations!” only to have dramatic, but quiet, downward revisions buried beneath the “New home sales beat expectations again!” headline the following month.
It’s almost like they’re trying to make the economy look like its doing better than it is. Like when they herald “New jobs created,” only it turns out there’s an actual net loss of full-time jobs and the difference is made up by part-time jobs.
(That happened in June 2014: The economy added 288,000 jobs in June because part-time jobs grew by 799,000, while full-time jobs fell by 523,000.)
IRS losing emails because of hard drive crashes (that’s not how email works), Benghazi all because of a YouTube video, economic data that’s not remotely reliable and colored by whatever the administration’s agenda is…
I look at all this – what the media lets government and party hacks in office and the bureaucracy get away with – and this is my face.
You wonder why there’s no trust in government when even the Census Bureau is playing Team Red/Team Blue games.
Both parties are guilty of this, and the only ones who can hold them accountable are the media.
But that would require the media to stop cheerleading for Team Red and Team Blue, and start acting like watchdogs instead of lapdogs.