Eric Fox is VP of Statistical and Economic Modeling at Veros Real Estate Solutions. Fox received his M.S. in Statistics and B.S. in Mathematics and Economics from Purdue University, and has 30 years of industrial experience in statistical and econometric modeling, probabilistic life methodology development, statistical training, probabilistic design software development, and probabilistic financial/competitive analysis.
In most parts of the country, home prices are appreciating, albeit at a slower pace than before. But in 5% of metros, prices will depreciate up to 1.9% in the coming year. Here is a list of the bottom 10 MSAs, or those with home prices that will depreciate the most in the next 12 months.
Ten markets will see residential property values rise an average of 7.85% in the next year – more than twice the 3.7% rate projected for the rest of the country. But while this might sound great, the average growth of the top 10 is a half-percent drop from the 8.3% we projected last quarter. This is part of a softening that, while significant, is simply a slowing down of most markets.
The new VeroFORECAST report for the fourth quarter of 2018 shows there are now 18 housing markets predicted to see average property values depreciate over the year ending December 1, 2019. 18 markets? This represents the largest number of housing markets riding the bottom of the forecast since June 2017
After nearly two years of continuous projected year-over-year increases in nationwide residential real estate appreciation, we predict that properties in the largest 100 markets will appreciate at just 3.9% in the coming year. Increasing housing supply and rising interest rates will be key contributors to the softening of the market.
With a growing population and bustling business growth, the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA is projected to see some growth in real estate appreciation but may be softening in the coming months. Read Eric Fox's analysis for more detail.
The recent announcement that one of Amazon's two new headquarters will be in Arlington, Virginia, just over an hour's drive from historic Richmond, may begin to have ripple effects through eastern Virginia as early as next year.
The Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Florida Metropolitan Statistical Area lays claim to Theme Park Capital of the World and number one in job growth among the nation's large metros. So what's housing going to do there for the next year. Click through for your answer.
[Expert commentary] The latest VeroFORECAST report shows that 351 Metropolitan Statistical Areas will experience property appreciation in the next year. But, of the bottom 10 MSAs, seven will see values decline between -0.2% and -2.2% in 2019. The two most troubled markets? Farmington, New Mexico, and Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, New Jersey.
According to the latest VeroFORECAST, this MSA is projected to see 11.7% appreciation for single-family residences and 11% appreciation for condos and townhomes and its market remains one of the strongest markets in the country, with its extremely low 1.4-month supply of homes struggling to fill the demands of its growing population.
For anyone actively working in the mortgage industry, it’s no secret that reverse mortgages have taken a brutal hit in the last two years. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development issued major program changes at the end of 2017 that effectively limited the amount of proceeds and the number of people who could qualify for the loan. The result had lenders across the space enduring sizable volume drops and subsequent gashes to their bottom lines.