Eric Fox is VP of Statistical and Economic Modeling at Veros Real Estate Solutions. Fox received his M.S. in Statistics and B.S. in Mathematics and Economics from Purdue University, and has 30 years of industrial experience in statistical and econometric modeling, probabilistic life methodology development, statistical training, probabilistic design software development, and probabilistic financial/competitive analysis.
In the next year, 5% of U.S. markets are predicted to depreciate, with Louisiana holding on to its title as the state with the most depreciating markets, claiming four of the 10 spots on the bottom markets list. Here is a list of the markets expected to see the greatest depreciation in the coming year.
With an estimated population more than 20 million, the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island Metropolitan Statistical Area is by far the nation's largest metro – nearly 50% larger than the runner-up. That also means that this metro, home to one in 16 Americans, is the nation's largest real estate market. So, what's happening in this market is perhaps a snapshot of things to come for the rest of the nation’s major markets. Sadly, it doesn't look great.
In most parts of the country, home prices are appreciating, albeit at a slower pace than before. But in 5% of metros, prices will depreciate up to 1.9% in the coming year. Here is a list of the bottom 10 MSAs, or those with home prices that will depreciate the most in the next 12 months.
Ten markets will see residential property values rise an average of 7.85% in the next year – more than twice the 3.7% rate projected for the rest of the country. But while this might sound great, the average growth of the top 10 is a half-percent drop from the 8.3% we projected last quarter. This is part of a softening that, while significant, is simply a slowing down of most markets.
The new VeroFORECAST report for the fourth quarter of 2018 shows there are now 18 housing markets predicted to see average property values depreciate over the year ending December 1, 2019. 18 markets? This represents the largest number of housing markets riding the bottom of the forecast since June 2017
After nearly two years of continuous projected year-over-year increases in nationwide residential real estate appreciation, we predict that properties in the largest 100 markets will appreciate at just 3.9% in the coming year. Increasing housing supply and rising interest rates will be key contributors to the softening of the market.
With a growing population and bustling business growth, the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA is projected to see some growth in real estate appreciation but may be softening in the coming months. Read Eric Fox's analysis for more detail.
The recent announcement that one of Amazon's two new headquarters will be in Arlington, Virginia, just over an hour's drive from historic Richmond, may begin to have ripple effects through eastern Virginia as early as next year.
The Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Florida Metropolitan Statistical Area lays claim to Theme Park Capital of the World and number one in job growth among the nation's large metros. So what's housing going to do there for the next year. Click through for your answer.
President Donald Trump appointed Calabria to take the helm of the FHFA on December 12, 2018. The Senate then officially confirmed Calabria in April by a vote of 52 to 44 as head of the agency. Since then, Calabria has not been silent on his plan to reform the FHFA and the entities it oversees – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.