On many occasions, and in many different forums, the Federal Reserve has expressed every intention of winding up its $1.25 trillion program for buying agency MBS by March 31. The FMOC explained in its January 27th statement:

To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets. The Federal Reserve is in the process of purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities…. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of these purchases, and it anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter.

By now, everyone is taking the Fed at its word. The budget document submitted by President Obama Tuesday regarded it as a foregone conclusion.