In the recovery’s next phase, home prices nationwide will rise slower by 8% in 2013 and even slower by 4% in 2014, according to Paul Diggle, property economist at Capital Economics. The firm’s outlook for next year is lower than the consensus of 5.5%, writes CNNMoney.

The slowdown is a positive sign because if prices were to continue rising the way they have at 12% annually, homes would be overvalued relative to rents within the next few months and relative to incomes by early 2015, Diggle writes to clients.