"Our current thinking is that the downturn, currently two years in the making, will last until 2009, with any sector recovery likely to be sluggish for some time after that," says Moody's Vice President/Senior Credit Officer Joseph Snider. "We are looking ahead 12-18 months to evaluate issuers' potential credit profiles, well before any recovery might reasonably be expected, and transition ratings to reflect each company's projected financial condition." ... Recent negative developments for the industry include the dramatic shift in the credit and lending environment, and the residential mortgage market exhibiting some elements of a credit crunch. Snider says home sales are likely to take a "substantial hit" in the next few months as subprime and most alt-A lending has ground to a halt and even prime-qualified borrowers have found it harder to get a mortgage.Looks like Moody's analysts arrived in line with where I've already been at, for those that read my recent interview last week.
Moody's: Housing Slump to Last into 2009
Moody's issued a report today (sub req'd) on U.S. homebuilders that noted the rating agency now expects the housing and associated mortgage downturn to last into 2009. From the press release: