The housing industry fell apart quickly and then began a protracted recovery.
Many housing markets hit bottom three years ago in early 2009 when prognosticators claimed that home prices had much further to fall, according to data released by Pro Teck Valuation Services.
The Waltham, Mass.-based real estate valuation firm explored the turnover rate (number of non-distressed sales divided by the total housing stock in a region) as an indication of future home prices. The analysis, the firm says, demonstrates that home prices in many areas are already rebounding from the bottom of the market.
“The Miami and Los Angeles markets are highly representative of what we foresee for most of the important coastal U.S. real estate markets,” Pro Teck Chief Executive Tom O’Grady said. “In particular, we see stabilizing and then gradually increasing prices over the next few years.”
According to Pro Teck, the significant decline in prices in 2009 made home values so compelling that both new owner-occupant homebuyers and astute U.S. and foreign investors came into these markets. The new demand prevented further declines, they say, creating the longer-term "bouncing around the bottom" prices seen today.
Click on the graphs below to see Pro Teck's representation of Los Angeles' and Miami's housing markets bottoming out in 2009 and the subsequent start of a recovery.
In addition to sales activity, the firm released a listing of the 10 best and 10 worst performing metros as ranked by its market condition-ranking model. The rankings are run for the single-family home markets in the top 200 statistical areas and based on the number of active listings, average listing price, number of sales, average active market time, average sold price, number of foreclosure sales and number of new listings.
“In March, the top ranked metros show a strong connection to states such as Texas and Oklahoma, which directly benefit from the resurgence in the U.S. oil exploration industries,” Michael Sklarz, principal at Collateral Analytics, said. “In addition, most of these markets did not experience price bubbles during the mid-2000s boom period and, thus, never became overpriced in the first place.”
Click on the image below to see the list of Pro Teck’s best and worst performing markets: