During third-quarter earnings, several large banks increased capital reserve to deal with putback risk. A note on Friday from JPMorgan(JPM) is also now estimating the amount of exposure to putbacks in the non-GSE space at $90 billion. Putbacks, or repurchase risks, are seen as rising now that the recent foreclosure scandal is exposing lax underwriting. The analysts originally estimated putbacks at $120 million. “We think that loans gone delinquent within the first 12 months of origination will have highest rate of putback success, but the success rate will fall off considerably thereafter,” said the analysts. “This is important because roughly half of all currently delinquent loans became delinquent two years or more into the loan.” Putbacks requests are big headlines these days, as more investors are gearing up to “ask” banks to repurchase mortgage investments. These investors allege that they purchased certain mortgage-backed securities with underestimated risks. Attorneys, such as Dallas-based Talcott Franklin, are leading the charge to consolidate investor interest to pressure the banks by gaining 25% voting rights share. However, with more and more parties getting involved in the reps and warranties fight, Barclays Capital analysts predict more uncertainty and no quick solutions. “We cannot ignore the possibility of faster negotiated settlements but would not expect originators to embrace them unless they offer a much better deal than the other option of taking it slow,” they say in a research note from Oct. 19. “The real near-term risk from our standpoint is if significant negative headlines make their way into the markets.” Jacob Gaffney is the editor of HousingWire. Write him
JPMorgan estimates non-GSE put-back risk at $90 billion
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